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Life Expectancy Projection

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The model does not predict a specific death age or cause. It estimates how the distribution changes for people with similar profiles under explicit assumptions. Use as a planning aid, not a personal prediction.

Exercise volume (optional)

Add your typical weekly activity. This refines the long-term CVD / mortality estimate below — it does not change the blood-pressure forecast. Above the guideline (~150 min/wk moderate) the benefit keeps growing to about 2–3×, then plateaus.

Estimated from activity type, minutes/week, and perceived (talk-test) intensity — an approximation, not a precise measurement. If your training is mostly vigorous endurance, atrial-fibrillation risk may be relevant (see note when it applies).

Expected outcomes — current profile vs with full intervention bundle

90% credible intervals shown in parentheses. Differences positive (green) favor the intervention.

Quantity Current profile With interventions Difference Evidence

Cause-specific death probability before age 85

Current profile (large number) vs intervention bundle change (small). Ranked by probability.

What this is. A Bayesian competing-risks model combining national mortality baselines with this person's risk profile and the intervention effects from our evidence database. Outputs are posterior distributions — averages and intervals across many simulated futures consistent with the inputs.

What this is not. A prediction of when or how this individual will die. Individual fate cannot be predicted; we report how typical outcomes shift for people with similar profiles. Confidence intervals reflect both biological variation and model uncertainty.

Assumptions. Full adherence to the prescribed intervention bundle (sodium reduction, DASH-style diet pattern, exercise, weight management as applicable); benefit accrual modeled with literature-informed lag; no major new comorbidities. Real adherence is typically lower; expect smaller effects in practice.

Status. Display reflects placeholder data while the production mortality engine (/api/v1/long-term-risk, task BCR_005) is being built. See risk_models/data/bayesian_competing_risks_mortality_layer.v1.json for the full specification.
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